The awards for the 80th Venice Film Festival were just announced, you can check out the winners here for all prizes. Many pundits, award season enthusiasts and Film Twitter all began immediately speculating and updating their Oscar predictions for the ongoing season. What does it all mean for the Oscar Race though?
Here is a brief breakdown by major award.

Volpi Cup for Best Actress – 2023 Winner – Cailee Spaeny for Priscilla
From 2010 through 2022, five actresses who won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress have received Oscar nominations for the same performances. Of those five actresses, two pulled off a win at the Oscars.

These are the performances that did manage to snag an Oscar nomination (or win*):
2016 – Emma Stone La La Land*
2018 – Olivia Colman The Favourite*
2020 – Vanessa Kirby Pieces of a Woman
2021 – Penélope Cruz Parallel Mothers
2022 – Cate Blanchett TÁR

The balance of performances in that twelve year window did not manage to break into the Oscar race. What does this mean for Cailee Spaeny? In recent years, it leans towards a nomination should be on the horizon.

Volpi Cup for Best Actor – 2023 Winner – Peter Sarsgaard for Memory
From 2010 through 2022, three actors who won the Volpi Cup for Best Actor have received Oscar nominations for the same performances. Two of those actors actually resulted in a tie between Philip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix for The Master. Of those two actors, neither pulled off a win at the Oscars in their coordinating year. Most recently, Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin won the Volpi Cup for Best Actor, but he did not win at the Oscars.

These are the performances that did manage to snag an Oscar nomination:
2013 – Philip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix The Master
2022 – Colin Farrell The Banshees of Inisherin

The balance of performances in that twelve year window did not manage to break into the Oscar race. What does this mean for Peter Sarsgaard? There isn’t a strong indication his win here means he’ll receive an Oscar nomination.

Silver Lion (Best Director) – 2023 Winner – Matteo Garrone for Io Capitano
From 2010 through 2022, one director who won the Silver Lion has received Oscar nominations for the same film. That same director did manage to win as well. Last year’s winner, Luca Guadagnino Bones & All, did not see his film receive any Oscar nominations sadly.

This is the only director that did manage to win an Oscar:
2021 – Jane Campion The Power of the Dog

The balance of directors in that twelve year window did not manage to break into the Oscar race. What does this mean for Matteo Garrone? There is almost no overlap here, but it does put his name in the very crowded director ring.

Grand Jury Prize – 2023 Winner – Evil Does Not Exist
From 2010 through 2022, five films have gone on to receive Oscar nominations in various categories. Only one Grand Jury Prize Winner has gone on to receive a Best Picture nomination.

These are the films that did manage to pick up Oscar nominations (or wins):
2014 – The Look of Silence – nominated for Best Documentary Feature
2015 – Anomalisa – nominated for Best Animated Feature
2016 – Nocturnal Animals – nominated for Best Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon)
2018 – The Favourite – won Best Actress (Olivia Colman); nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz), Best Original Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing and Best Production Design
2021 – The Hand of God – nominated for Best International Feature

The balance of films in that twelve year window did not manage to break into the Oscar race. What does this mean for Evil Does Not Exist? There is varied history here, but it does seem this indicates the film is well on its way to being in the Oscar conversation if the film has a qualifying 2023 release.

Golden Lion – 2023 Winner – Poor Things
From 2010 through 2022, five films have gone on to receive Oscar nominations in various categories. All but one of those Golden Lion Prize Winners have gone on to receive a Best Picture nomination, with two winning.
These are the films that did manage to pick up Oscar nominations (or wins):
2017 – The Shape of Water – won Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Score, Best Production Design; nominated Best Actress (Sally Hawkins), Best Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins), Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
2018 – Roma – won Best Director, Best International Feature Film, Best Cinematography; nominated Best Picture, Best Actress (Yalitza Aparicio), Best Supporting Actress (Marina de Tavira), Best Original Screenplay, Best Production Design, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
2019 – Joker – won Best Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), Best Original Score; nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
2020 – Nomadland – won Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Frances McDormand); nominated Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing
2022 – All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – nominated for Best Documentary Feature

The balance of films in that twelve year window did not manage to break into the Oscar race. What does this mean for Poor Things? There is varied history here, but as of late, it does indicate the film is well on its way to being in the Oscar conversation, including the Best Picture race. Poor Things is making quite the festival run outside of the Venice Film Festival and AMPAs screenings were overfull before the Golden Lion win.