Each week, the OFFSCREEN CENTRAL team will bring you updated predictions! The team will be basing predictions on forecasters, other nominations/wins, campaigns and previous Oscar season patterns.

Weekly, we will update throughout the season and with each update below, we’ll indicate our changes as we update!

Anything in green has moved up in our predictions indicating an increased chance to us in its nomination chances.
Anything in red has moved down in our predictions indicating a decreased chance to us in its nomination chances.
Anything in blue is a new addition into our predictions.
Anything in not highlighted remains in the same placement as the last time we updated our predictions.

Below, you’ll find our predictions for LEAD ACTOR from most likely to least likely to win.

*Last updated 2/27

KENZIE
1 – WAGNER MOURA – THE SECRET AGENT
2 – LEONARDO DICAPRIO – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
3 – TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET – MARTY SUPREME
4 – MICHAEL B. JORDAN – SINNERS
5 – ETHAN HAWKE – BLUE MOON
JESSA
1 – TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET – MARTY SUPREME
2 – WAGNER MOURA – THE SECRET AGENT
3 – LEONARDO DICAPRIO – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
4 – MICHAEL B. JORDAN – SINNERS
5 – ETHAN HAWKE – BLUE MOON
EVA
1 – TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET – MARTY SUPREME
2 – LEONARDO DICAPRIO – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
3 – WAGNER MOURA – THE SECRET AGENT
4 – MICHAEL B. JORDAN – SINNERS
5 – ETHAN HAWKE – BLUE MOON
MADELYN
1 – TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET – MARTY SUPREME
2 – LEONARDO DICAPRIO – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
3 – WAGNER MOURA – THE SECRET AGENT
4 – ETHAN HAWKE – BLUE MOON
5 – MICHAEL B. JORDAN – SINNERS
MEREDITH
1 – TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET – MARTY SUPREME
2 – WAGNER MOURA – THE SECRET AGENT
3 – MICHAEL B. JORDAN – SINNERS
4 – ETHAN HAWKE – BLUE MOON
5 – LEONARDO DICAPRIO – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
SARAH
1 – LEONARDO DICAPRIO – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
2 – TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET – MARTY SUPREME
3 – WAGNER MOURA – THE SECRET AGENT
4 – MICHAEL B. JORDAN – SINNERS
5 – ETHAN HAWKE – BLUE MOON