Each week, the OFFSCREEN CENTRAL team will bring you updated predictions! The team will be basing predictions on forecasters, other nominations/wins, campaigns and previous Oscar season patterns.

Weekly, we will update throughout the season and with each update below, we’ll indicate our changes as we update!

Anything in green has moved up in our predictions indicating an increased chance to us in its nomination chances.
Anything in red has moved down in our predictions indicating a decreased chance to us in its nomination chances.
Anything in blue is a new addition into our predictions.
Anything in not highlighted remains in the same placement as the last time we updated our predictions.

Below, you’ll find our predictions for BEST DIRECTOR from most likely to least likely to be nominated.

*Last updated 12/11

KENZIE
1 – JAFAR PANAHI – IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
2 – PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
3 – JOSH SAFDIE – MARTY SUPREME
4 – RYAN COOGLER – SINNERS
5 – GUILLERMO DEL TORO – FRANKENSTEIN
6 – CHLOÉ ZHAO – HAMNET
7 – PARK CHAN-WOOK – NO OTHER CHOICE
8 – JOACHIM TRIER – SENTIMENTAL VALUE 
9 – KLEBER MENDONÇA FILHO – THE SECRET AGEN
10 – NOAH BAUMBACH – JAY KELLY
MAR
1 – PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
2 – JOSH SAFDIE – MARTY SUPREME
3 – CHLOÉ ZHAO – HAMNET
4 – JAFAR PANAHI – IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
5 – GUILLERMO DEL TORO – FRANKENSTEIN
6 – RYAN COOGLER – SINNERS
7 – JOACHIM TRIER – SENTIMENTAL VALUE 
8 – PARK CHAN-WOOK – NO OTHER CHOICE
9 – NOAH BAUMBACH – JAY KELLY
10 – CLINT BENTLEY – TRAIN DREAMS
JESSA
1 – PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
2 – JARFAR PANAHI – IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
3 – CHLOÉ ZHAO – HAMNET
4 – GUILLERMO DEL TORO – FRANKENSTEIN
5 – JOACHIM TRIER – SENTIMENTAL VALUE
6 – RYAN COOGLER – SINNERS
7 – JOSH SAFDIE – MARTY SUPREME
8 – NOAH BAUMBACH – JAY KELLY
9 – PARK CHAN-WOOK – NO OTHER CHOICE
10 – KLEBER MENDONÇA FILHO – THE SECRET AGENT
EVA
1 – PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
2 – JAFAR PANAHI – IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
3 – CHLOÉ ZHAO – HAMNET
4 – RYAN COOGLER – SINNERS
5 – JOSH SAFDIE – MARTY SUPREME 
6 – GUILLERMO DEL TORO – FRANKENSTEIN
7 – JOACHIM TRIER – SENTIMENTAL VALUE
8 – CLINT BENTLEY – TRAIN DREAMS
9 – PARK CHAN-WOOK – NO OTHER CHOICE
10 – NOAH BAUMBACH – JAY KELLY
MEREDITH
1 – PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
2 – CHLOÉ ZHAO – HAMNET
3 – GUILLERMO DEL TORO – FRANKENSTEIN
4 – JAFAR PANAHI – IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
5 – RYAN COOGLER – SINNERS
6 – JOSH SAFDIE – MARTY SUPREME
7 – CLINT BENTLEY – TRAIN DREAMS
8 – JOACHIM TRIER – SENTIMENTAL VALUE
9 – NOAH BAUMBACH – JAY KELLY
10 – YORGOS LANTHIMOS – BUGONIA
SARAH
1 – PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
2 – CHLOÉ ZHAO – HAMNET
3 – JAFAR PANAHI – IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
4 – RYAN COOGLER – SINNERS
5 – JOACHIM TRIER – SENTIMENTAL VALUE
6 – GUILLERMO DEL TORO – FRANKENSTEIN
7 – JOSH SAFDIE – MARTY SUPREME
8 – NOAH BAUMBACH – JAY KELLY
9 – CLINT BENTLEY – TRAIN DREAMS
10 – PARK CHAN-WOOK – NO OTHER CHOICE
MADELYN
1 – PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
2 – JAFAR PANAHI – IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
3 – CHLOÉ ZHAO – HAMNET
4 – RYAN COOGLER – SINNERS
5 – JOSH SADFIE – MARTY SUPREME
6 – GUILLERMO DEL TORO – FRANKENSTEIN
7 – JOACHIM TRIER – SENTIMENTAL VALUE
8 – CLINT BENTLEY – TRAIN DREAMS
9 – PARK CHAN-WOOK – NO OTHER CHOICE
10 – NOAH BAUMBACH – JAY KELLY