Award season is coming to its last two months as the Oscar nominations are finally here this week! After months of critics groups, guilds, and other award show nominations and wins, the Academy will unveil its 2026 nominations honoring what they consider the best of film in 2025. The announcement of the 98th Academy Awards nominations will take place Thursday, January 22 at 5:30 AM (PST). There will be a livestream on Oscar.com, Oscar.org and the Academy’s social media pages including Instagram, TikTok, YouTube and Facebook. They will also air on ABC’s Good Morning America and stream on ABC News Live, Disney+ and Hulu. The Oscars themselves will air on ABC and stream on Hulu on March 15th.
After carefully updating our predictions weekly for what was likely to be nominated, our team has landed on their final predictions for nominations in all categories, including the new category honoring casting. While some categories, we (nervously) completely agree upon in all five nomination predictions. There are some we differ on those last two slots of what could be nominated. With BAFTA not having its nominations out and only their long list, SAG nominations out but no wins, and many guilds only with nominations and no wins, it’s hard to paint a complete picture, which makes the season fun to discuss but hard to accurately predict without taking some risk.
| BEST PICTURE | TEAM MEMBER |
| ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | KENZIE, SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| SINNERS | KENZIE, SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| HAMNET | KENZIE, SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| FRANKENSTEIN | KENZIE, SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| MARTY SUPREME | KENZIE, SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| SENTIMENTAL VALUE | KENZIE, SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| THE SECRET AGENT | KENZIE, SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| TRAIN DREAMS | KENZIE, SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| BUGONIA | KENZIE, SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT | KENZIE, SARAH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN |
| F1 | MEREDITH, EVA |
In our buzzing group chat, the team is pretty safe on majority of the Best Picture contenders but those last two slots we feel could go to a number of films. Bugonia feels very strong given how it has performed with the guilds, BAFTA longlist showing and prospective other nominations. Train Dreams feels safer following its PGA nomination and given the film is contending for nominations in various branches, a Best Picture nomination is on track. After those last two, this is where our team is trying to make sense of it all. We all want It Was Just an Accident in this final ten, but is it likely? The film was once such a promise in multiple above-the-line categories but feels it fell off a bit with win and nomination showings. However, the film has such a passion behind it and filmmaker Jafar Panahi and it did win the Palme d’Or. On the flip side, F1 was not only a pretty big financial hit but has been widely acclaimed by critics and so far, pretty recognized by American based guilds. However, F1 the race is such an international attraction it’s hard to see it not translating at all outside of the states given it will most likely land multiple below-the-line nominations. Separately, Weapons has not only been picking up at various guilds, including PGA, but the film is a contender in an acting category with a possibility of a screenplay and casting nomination. While early in the year Wicked: For Good or Avatar: Fire and Ash felt vying for that last slot, both feel they’ll underperform with even craft nominations and neither have felt likely for a Picture nomination in quite some time.
| BEST DIRECTOR | TEAM MEMBER |
| PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| CHLOÉ ZHAO – HAMNET | MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| JOACHIM TRIER – SENTIMENTAL VALUE | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA |
| JOSH SAFDIE – MARTY SUPREME | SARAH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, KENZIE |
| KLEBER MENDONÇA FILHO – THE SECRET AGENT | SARAH, EVA, KENZIE |
| RYAN COOGLER – SINNERS | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| GUILLERMO DEL TORO – FRANKENSTEIN | MEREDITH |
| JAFAR PANAHI – IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT | JESSA, MADELYN |
Director has felt like it was Paul Thomas Anderson’s all season with previous winner Chloé Zhao and Ryan Coogler right behind him. Those three have felt like not only top contenders in the category but their films the top 3 in picture pretty much all season, which is what differs any of them from any mention of the trend of ‘directors who land everywhere but miss.’ Greta Gerwig for Barbie, Denis Villeneuve for Dune never felt like true contenders for picture. The only comparable would be last year’s Edward Berger for Conclave, which we all assume was number two in picture, but the film did not have anywhere near as wide support as these three do. However, it does feel very… Academy to snub someone so widely predicted. If any of those three miss, unfortunately, author here not team at large, feels it may be Zhao.
So, what about those last two slots? The directing branch not only skews more international but typically throws us a wildcard nomination. This year, it feels we have three international contenders in Best Picture, which would make them feel likely here. Joachim Trier just won the director prize at the European Film Awards, which over the last five years has a strong correlation for nominations here. The Secret Agent feels it’s been gaining momentum all throughout voting and Kleber Mendonça Filho feels very present throughout the season alongside star Wagner Moura. Josh Safdie feels very much fifth place here despite how well Marty Supreme has done and perhaps could over perform Oscar nomination morning. But with the branch typically going international and the passion behind It Was Just an Accident could see Jafar Panahi slide in, especially given the brave act of how the filmmaker made the film. Guillermo del Toro has DGA but missed the BAFTA longlist; however del Toro time and time again has proven he’s beloved in the industry. Another former nominee the team has actively been keeping an eye on is Yorgos Lanthimos. Bugonia has over performed across the board all season and what’s to say the director isn’t coming along?
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | TEAM MEMBER |
| SINNERS | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| SENTIMENTAL VALUE | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| MARTY SUPREME | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| THE SECRET AGENT | SARAH, MAR, EVA |
| IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT | MEREDITH, JESSA, KENZIE |
| SORRY, BABY | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, KENZIE, MADELYN |
| WEAPONS | JESSA, MADELYN |
| BLUE MOON | EVA |
Original screenplay feels pretty locked with contenders Sinners, Sentimental Value and Marty Supreme. Those final two slots could go in a few directions. It Was Just an Accident has been praised all throughout the season for its screenplay, even a Golden Globe nomination and pulling off a BAFTA longlist mention while the film underperformed. Sorry, Baby has been a ‘Film Twitter’ beloved hope-diction for Original Screenplay all season but after Eva Victor’s Lead Actress nomination at the Globes and the Julia Roberts shouting them out and the film as a must watch right as voting started, it seems very possible Sorry, Baby is not just a hope but a very strong possibility of being nominated here. Another screenplay mention could be Weapons, which if you’re predicting it in Picture and maybe Casting, it should possibly be here too. The Secret Agent feels momentum rising at the right time, however, it has not gotten a ton of screenplay love specifically.
| ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | TEAM MEMBER |
| ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| TRAIN DREAMS | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| HAMNET | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| BUGONIA | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| FRANKENSTEIN | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
The rare category our entire time is in entire agreement. While there are some outsiders here with both No Other Choice and Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. But our team is fully in agreement on those five above.
| LEAD ACTRESS | TEAM MEMBER |
| JESSIE BUCKLEY – HAMNET | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| ROSE BYRNE – IF I HAD LEGS I’D KICK YOU | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| CHASE INFINITI – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| EMMA STONE – BUGONIA | MEREDITH, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA |
| RENATE REINSVE – SENTIMENTAL VALUE | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| AMANDA SEYFRIED – THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE | KENZIE, MAR, JESSA |
| JENNIFER LAWRENCE – DIE MY LOVE | MADELYN |
Lead actress has been such a thrilling category all season with so many former winners, former nominees or actresses looking for their first nomination. Jessie Buckley feels far ahead as the frontrunner for the win for her role in Hamnet, which would be her second overall Oscar nomination. Behind her is Rose Byrne, who will most likely be a sole nomination for her film, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Both of them won Golden Globe awards for these performances and both have BAFTA longlist and SAG nomination, whereas Buckley won the CCA Award and Byrne won NBR. Who you think comes behind them is tricky based on what path you think they’re going to each take nomination morning alongside their film. Is it Emma Stone for Bugonia as the film is over performing and she’s at its center, a two time former winner in the category? Is it Chase Infiniti, who some are saying belongs in Supporting Actress but its her debut film performance (and her film is the frontrunner for Best Picture, Director, etc). Renate Reinsve could be nominated for her latest project with Joachim Trier, where she seemed close before with their last film The Worst Person in the World. She’s not only landed everywhere all season with the exception of SAG but she just won at the European Film Awards. Some of us went rogue and predicted either Jennifer Lawerence in Die My Love, as she’s been everywhere all season, or Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee. While Ann Lee has been largely shut out all season and had a strange wide release strategy, Seyfried feels like the type of actor and performance to surprise nomination morning.
An outlier none of us predicted is a very likely nomination in Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue. She’s not only picked up SAG and Golden Globe nominations but she was BAFTA long listed as well, showing wide appeal for her performance. As many have compared to Nyad, she could be a nomination no one wants to predict but pops up morning of
| LEAD ACTOR | TEAM MEMBER |
| TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET – MARTY SUPREME | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| LEONARDO DICAPRIO – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| WAGNER MOURA – THE SECRET AGENT | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| JOEL EDGERTON – TRAIN DREAMS | SARAH, MAR |
| JESSE PLEMONS – BUGONIA | SARAH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE |
| ETHAN HAWKE – BLUE MOON | MEREDITH, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| MICHAEL B. JORDAN – SINNERS | MEREDITH, MADELYN, KENZIE, EVA |
Lead Actor feels largely between Timothée Chalamet, Wagner Moura and Leonardo DiCaprio (even if as of now it seems like Chalamet’s to lose). Chalamet has such a momentum as his film’s sole win, DiCaprio was given career best praise in the film largely contending to win Best Picture and while Moura missed a SAG nomination, he won the Globe and has his Best Actor from Cannes prize. Behind him, Michael B. Jordan feels very secure, while not for a win, but his nomination is happening. Sinners could potentially be one of the most nominated films in history and with one (or maybe two) supporting performances coming into the mix, Jordan is definitely along for the ride.
After these names, there’s a fifth slot that could be a few number of actors. Ethan Hawke could be a sole nomination for his latest with Richard Linklater with Blue Moon and he’s landed Golden Globe, SAG, and CCA nominations alongside a BAFTA long list. However, Jesse Plemons, with a Globe and SAG nomination with BAFTA long list mention feels more secure given his film, Bugonia, is going to be in Best Picture and various other places. Another contender who will have their film in Best Picture is Train Dream‘s Joel Edgerton, while he missed the SAG nomination, he does have slight momentum and a film he’s the sole lead in.
| SUPPORTING ACTRESS | TEAM MEMBER |
| TEYANA TAYLOR – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| INGA IBSDOTTER LILLEAAS – SENTIMENTAL VALUE | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA |
| ODESSA A’ZION – MARTY SUPREME | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, EVA |
| WUMNI MOSAKU – SINNERS | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| ELLE FANNING – SENTIMENTAL VALUE | JESSA, MADELYN |
| AMY MADIGAN – WEAPONS | MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, SARAH, EVA |
| ARIANA GRANDE – WICKED: FOR GOOD | MADELYN |
| GWYNETH PALTROW – MARTY SUPREME | KENZIE |
Supporting Actress has felt like the hardest category to nail down all season with multiple films with multiple contenders in this category (Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another) and one nominee, who is contending to win possibly, some of us didn’t believe could actually break in the final Oscar 5 given genre bias. Teyana Taylor and Amy Madigan both feel not only locks but contending for the win. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas has felt like the standout from Sentimental Value and while Elle Fanning is more of a well known name, it feels she’s being under recognized all season for a more subtle performance. Wunmi Mosaku feels like a lock after many of us having her floating at five or below the line up all season. After her SAG nomination and BAFTA longlist, she seems quite secure.
While many of us wanted Regina Hall to surprise here, she’s blanked all season, most likely due to very limited screen time. Ariana Grande feels right on the outside for Wicked: For Good; the film just does not feel well received in any branch and it could present tricky for her to break into the lineup, however, she has landed everywhere and she is what many say is one of the best parts of the film. If Grande is nominated again for her Wicked role, it won’t be a surprise to any of us.
For Marty Supreme, Odessa A’zion has landed that SAG nomination alongside a BAFTA long list while her co-star former Oscar Winner Gwyneth Paltrow only has a long list mention. But there is something to be said about her getting in over A’zion in a surprise given the role is written to play to Paltrow’s own narrative and she was a highlight for many people. A’zion is more likely but Paltrow could easily surprise.
| SUPPORTING ACTOR | TEAM MEMBER |
| STELLAN SKARSGÅRD – SENTIMENTAL VALUE | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| BENICIO DEL TORO – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| SEAN PENN – ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| JACOB ELORDI – FRANKENSTEIN | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| PAUL MESCAL – HAMNET | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
Another category we’re in complete alignment on! While we’d love to see either Miles Caton or Delroy Lindo surprise for their work in Sinners, both don’t have an easy path while the five we all have listed have landed almost everywhere or at least multiple places. But if one of them surprises, we wouldn’t be shocked (and we’d be over the moon).
| CINEMATOGRAPHY | TEAM MEMBER |
| SINNERS | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| TRAIN DREAMS | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| MARTY SUPREME | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN |
| FRANKENSTEIN | SARAH, MEREDITH, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| HAMNET | MAR, JESSA |
| BUGONIA | KENZIE, EVA |
Cinematography is so interesting this year with so many contenders from previous nominees/winners, a potential historic win on the horizon and so many contenders shot on film. There were some interesting omissions with the shortlist (we still think about you 28 Years Later), however, there are potential shakeups here outside of the precursors of both American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) and British Society of Cinematographers (BSC).
Sinners, One Battle After Another, Frankenstein and Marty Supreme all have ASC, BSC, CCA and BAFTA longlist. Train Dreams has ASC, BAFTA longlist and won CCA. Hamnet was nominated at CCA and has BAFTA longlist, but missed both ASC and BSC. With Hamnet, it is worth noting films have gotten in missing both, however, Łukasz Žal is a two-time Oscar nominee, but he missed previously for a well-beloved by the Academy film, The Zone of Interest. Die My Love has BSC and BAFTA longlist while Bugonia only has the BAFTA longlist mention.
| CASTING | TEAM MEMBER |
| SINNERS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| MARTY SUPREME | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| FRANKENSTEIN | MEREDITH, KENZIE, MADELYN |
| HAMNET | MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, SARAH, MADELYN, EVA |
| ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| SENTIMENTAL VALUE | MAR, JESSA |
| THE SECRET AGENT | SARAH, KENZIE, EVA |
In the first year at the Oscars, Casting will be such an interesting category to see how the nominations are decided on and eventually how the winner is voted on by all members at large. Are they voting for just the ensemble despite the name of the category? Are they focused on the actual casting process? While Casting Society (CSA) revealed their nominations and Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme and Wicked: For Good, it is important to note only members are eligible for nominations, so both Weapons and One Battle After Another were not able to be nominated here. Films such as Frankenstein and Weapons have such a story behind their casting process. Jacob Elordi stepping in last minute for someone else dropping out in Frankenstein. Weapons being entirely recast for almost every single role plus all of these child actors. Hamnet has an interesting angle with the Jupe brothers. Marty Supreme has such an eclectic mix of non-actors and actors, a Safdie move that casting director Jennifer Venditti excels at. Both One Battle After Another and Sinners are true ensemble films and both filled with legends and discoveries. Wicked: For Good feels like a good prediction, but the film has been widely underperforming and specifically with the cast… whether or not that weighs into it will be a clue at how these category is voted on in the nomination process. Sentimental Value is an interesting one as part of the plot of the film revolves around casting. The category feels pretty endless with narratives for each film having an in so it’ll be interesting to see what we land with outside of the ones that feel like locks.
| FILM EDITING | TEAM MEMBER |
| ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| F1: THE MOVIE | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| MARTY SUPREME | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| SINNERS | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| HAMNET | MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| FRANKENSTEIN | KENZIE |
| BUGONIA | SARAH |
Film editing is often listed as something indicative of Best Picture and while that is true, it often has films that feature kinetic editing yet they don’t make it into the final Best Picture lineup. Our coordinating guild, the American Cinema Editors, won’t unveil their nominations until January 27th, the same day as BAFTA noms, five days after Oscar nominations are announced. All we really have here is CCA and the BAFTA longlist. F1 won CCA here and has BAFTA longlist mention. One Battle After Another, Sinners, A House of Dynamite and Marty Supreme all have both CCA nominations and BAFTA longlist. Hamnet, Frankenstein, Bugonia and Weapons are mentioned on the BAFTA longlist but missed CCA.
| VISUAL EFFECTS | TEAM MEMBER |
| AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA, MADELYN |
| F1: THE MOVIE | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA, MADELYN |
| FRANKENSTEIN | MAR, KENZIE, MADELYN |
| SUPERMAN | SARAH, MAR, EVA, KENZIE |
| SINNERS | SARAH, MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, EVA, MADELYN |
| JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH | MEREDITH, JESSA |
| THE LOST BUS | MEREDITH, JESSA, SARAH, EVA, KENZIE |
| WICKED: FOR GOOD | MADELYN |
Visual effects in the year of an Avatar installment is quite funny as we have all known the winner for over a year, but we have quite a few interesting contenders, especially after what was left off or included on the shortlist. Avatar: Fire and Ash won CCA and has 10 nominations at Visual Effects Society (VES). Additionally at VES, Lost Bus and Superman both have four nominations each, while F1 has one nomination. These feel secure in nominations given their real-world blended effects. It’s also worth noting Superman was the superhero fit of the year, making it feel like a worthy place for it to be recognized at the Oscars. The last Jurassic Park film to receive a nomination here was The Lost World: Jurassic Park from 1997. It seems unlikely Rebirth will make it in, but it is worth noting director Gareth Edwards is a VFX artist. We typically see Best Picture contenders pop up here, at least one, and while Frankenstein is not nominated at VES, Sinners has one nomination.
| ORIGINAL SCORE | TEAM MEMBER |
| SINNERS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA, EVA |
| HAMNET | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| TRAIN DREAMS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, MADELYN |
| F1: THE MOVIE | MEREDITH, KENZIE |
| FRANKENSTEIN | SARAH, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| MARTY SUPREME | MAR, EVA |
Original score feels pretty solid this year for four slots. Four scores have landed at all the precursors so far: CCA, Golden Globe, Hollywood Music in Media (HMMA), Society of Composers & Lyricists (SCL) as well as mentioned on the BAFTA longlist, which are Sinners, One Battle After Another, Hamnet and Frankenstein. Despite some previous misses by some composers in the Oscar category, it feels pretty likely they’ll all land nominations Thursday. For that final fifth slot, there are a few viable options. F1, from Hans Zimmer, has a Golden Globe nomination alongside an HMMA nomination. Train Dreams only has an SCL nomination. While Marty Supreme has CCA and HMMA nominations along with a BAFTA longlist mention. Wicked: For Good and Bugonia both have HMMA and SCL nominations along with a BAFTA longlist mention. However, Bugonia feels far more likely as its dominated various guilds in other categories and will land in Picture, this would be an easy nomination to swoop up.
| BEST SOUND | TEAM MEMBER |
| F1: THE MOVIE | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA, MADELYN |
| ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA, MADELYN |
| SINNERS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA, MADELYN |
| FRANKENSTEIN | MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA |
| SIRĀT | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA |
| AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH | SARAH, MADELYN |
| WICKED: FOR GOOD | MADELYN |
For Best Sound this year, some of things we assumed would be easy nominations following their previous installments (both Avatar and Wicked), yet as we arrive at nomination morning, both feel very likely to miss. F1, Sinners, One Battle After Another and Sirāt all received CCA, MPSE and CAS nominations. (F1 won CCA). Both Frankenstein an Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning received both MPSE and CAS nominations. Avatar: Fire and Ash received only a CCA nomination while Wicked: For Good received only an MPSE nomination. Sirāt is pending other nominations, including Original Score, while Mission: Impossible would be a sole nomination here if it slid in, which is not unheard of in this category.
| ORIGINAL SONG | TEAM MEMBER |
| “GOLDEN” – KPOP DEMON HUNTERS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| “I LIED TO YOU” – SINNERS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| “NO PLACE LIKE HOME” – WICKED: FOR GOOD | MEREDITH, JESSA |
| “DEAR ME” – DIANE WARREN: RELENTLESS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN,EVA |
| “THE GIRL IN THE BUBBLE” – WICKED: FOR GOOD | MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| “TRAIN DREAMS” – TRAIN DREAMS | MAR, SARAH, MADELYN, KENZIE |
| “SALT THEN SOUR THEN SWEET” – COME SEE ME IN THE GOOD LIGHT | SARAH |
| “DRIVE” – F1: THE MOVIE | KENZIE, EVA |
While the song of the year “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters is definitely winning, it’s actually a pretty stacked category with options from category mainstays, Diane Warren (she’s in, don’t worry), to original songs thrust into musicals by mega pop stars. What’s interesting is we could have had two songs from Wicked but there’s a chance both miss. While we for sure have one Sinners song in, what if both get in if the film hits maximum nominations. Train Dreams could slide in here with the song being well received and giving Nick Cave some love. While it’s not this girl’s favorite F1 song (Justice for Messy!!!), I do think “Drive” has been campaigned by Ed Sheeran (and John Mayer) quite a bit and for a movie audiences really enjoy, wouldn’t be a surprising inclusion. One song to definitely keep an eye on is “Salt then Sour then Sweet” as the nominations would go to Sara Bareilles and Brandi Carlile, who are not only beloved but have been campaigning quite a bit.
| COSTUME DESIGN | TEAM MEMBER |
| SINNERS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| FRANKENSTEIN | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| WICKED: FOR GOOD | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| HAMNET | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA |
| HEDDA | KENZIE |
| ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | MEREDITH, SARAH, MADELYN, EVA |
| MARTY SUPREME | MAR, MADELYN |
| DOWNTON ABBEY: THE GRAND FINALE | JESSA |
Costume design could be one of the richest categories this year in terms of quality, even if you don’t love the film itself. With former winners and nominees to new faces in the category, we have a consensus four that all hit CCA, CDG and the BAFTA longlist, Frankenstein, Sinners, Wicked: For Good and Hamnet. Hedda has CCA and CDG but missed the BAFTA longlist. While Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and One Battle After Another both have CDG and the BAFTA longlist. Marty Supreme has only the BAFTA longlist mention and Kiss of the Spider Woman only has a CCA nomination. I went with Hedda for my final slot but it could truly be any of these to slide in with enough support.
| PRODUCTION DESIGN | TEAM MEMBER |
| SINNERS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| FRANKENSTEIN | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| HAMNET | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, KENZIE, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA |
| MARTY SUPREME | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA |
| THE PHOENICIAN SCHEME | MEREDITH |
| ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | MADELYN |
| WICKED: FOR GOOD | MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
Production Design can often just mimic the nominations of Costume Design, however, I think that final fifth slot is where it differs in both. Frankenstein, Wicked: For Good, Sinners and Hamnet all have ADG, CCA and SDSA nominations along with BAFTA longlist mentions. These are the four that feel they’ll repeat from Costume Design. Additionally, Marty Supreme and The Fantastic Four: First Steps both have ADG, CCA and SDSA nominations along with BAFTA longlist mentions as well. I would put in Marty Supreme here as its Jack Fisk, a legend, but I would not be surprised if The Fantastic Four made it in. Avatar felt like it could show up here for awhile and it did receive ADG and SDSA nominations, but missed the BAFTA longlist. While One Battle After Another received both ADG and SDSA nominations and has a mention on the BAFTA longlist, it feels either Marty or Fantastic feel more likely here, unless One Battle just over performs nomination morning.
| MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | TEAM MEMBER |
| FRANKENSTEIN | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| SINNERS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| WICKED: FOR GOOD | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| THE SMASHING MACHINE | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | MEREDITH, MADELYN |
| THE UGLY STEPSISTER | MAR, JESSA |
| MARTY SUPREME | KENZIE, SARAH, EVA |
Following a huge horror turnout at least year’s Oscars, this year feels interesting with films such as The Ugly Stepsister making it on the shortlist, but Weapons being left off. What does that mean for the nominations? Especially with Sinners and Frankenstein as the top contenders in the category. Following those two, The Smashing Machine feels like a lock with Kazu Hiro behind the transformation of Dwayne Johnson. While Wicked: For Good and Marty Supreme feel likely to round out the category, there’s a chance following the bake off it could be Kokuho or maybe One Battle After Another picks up a nomination here for that final look on Sean Penn. Kokuho missed all precursors but given both Marty Supreme feels too subtle for some and maybe One Battle isn’t enough throughout the film, what sneaks in if they miss?
| INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | TEAM MEMBER |
| THE SECRET AGENT (BRAZIL) | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| SENTIMENTAL VALUE (NORWAY) | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (FRANCE) | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| SIRĀT (SPAIN) | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| NO OTHER CHOICE (SOUTH KOREA) | MEREDITH, MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN |
| THE VOICE OF HIND RIJAB (TUNISIA) | SARAH |
| LEFT-HANDED GIRL (TAIWAN) | EVA |
Given International Feature is stacked with Best Picture contenders, we have a safe four, most likely, with The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, and Sirāt. Majority of our team went with No Other Choice, which was once a hopeful in many above-the-line categories but fell off a bit with wins and nominations elsewhere. If No Other Choice is that fifth nominee, the category is entirely NEON distributed films.
Left-Handed Girl has had an amazing campaign and remained in the conversation no matter how competitive it’s been, but it does feel a bit quiet given the passion behind the other contenders. The Voice of Hind Rijab may have not had the greatest rollout theatrically but the vital film has never left the conversation. While The President’s Cake could have been a surprise at one point, it wasn’t really campaigned these last few weeks to have enough momentum.
| ANIMATED FEATURE | TEAM MEMBER |
| KPOP DEMON HUNTERS | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| ZOOTOPIA 2 | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| LITTLE AMÉLIE OR THE CHARACTER OR RAIN | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| ELIO | MEREDITH, MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, MADELYN, EVA |
| THE BAD GUYS 2 | MEREDITH, MADELYN |
| ARCO | MAR, SARAH, JESSA, KENZIE, EVA |
We’re all in agreement on four of the five nominees as most have landed everywhere all season. While some of us are fairly convinced it’s Arco, which has Annie, CCA, Golden Globe and BAFTA longlist, a few of us were swayed by the PGA listing of The Bad Guys 2. Additional call outs here for a potential surprise if maybe Elio falls off, In Your Dreams or the beloved Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle, which has Golden Globe, PGA and a BAFTA longlist mention.
| DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | TEAM MEMBER |
| THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR | MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, EVA, MEREDITH |
| THE ALABAMA SOLUTION | MAR, JESSA, MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| MR. NOBODY AGAINST PUTIN | MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, SARAH, MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| 2000 METERS TO ANDRIIVKA | MAR, JESSA, KENZIE, SARAH, MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| SEEDS | MAR, MEREDITH |
| COVER-UP | JESSA, KENZIE, SARAH, MADELYN, EVA |
| MY UNDESIRABLE FRIENDS: PART 1 – LAST AIR IN MOSCOW | KENZIE, SARAH, EVA |
| APOCALYPSE IN THE TROPICS | KENZIE, SARAH, EVA |
| CUTTING THROUGH ROCKS | EVA |
Every single year this category is one of the hardest to predict as this branch never does what you expect. The Perfect Neighbor has dominated the precursors but the film is entirely comprised of archival footage, which is typically not for this branch. The branch also typically avoids nominating that frontrunner we all assume is the winner, which is also The Perfect Neighbor this year. However, The International Documentary Association (IDA) gave their top prize to a film not even on the Oscar shortlist. Everything about predicting this category is difficult. While most of us did end up predicting The Perfect Neighbor, we additionally went with some other Netflix docs that landed at PGA, Cover-Up and Apocalypse in the Tropics. Some of us did end up pushing in the five and a half hour film, My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow.
| ANIMATED SHORT | TEAM MEMBER |
| AUTOKAR | JESSA |
| BUTTERFLY | JESSA, EVA, KENZIE, MEREDITH |
| SNOW BEAR | JESSA, SARAH, EVA, KENZIE, MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| FOREVERGREEN | JESSA |
| CARDBOARD | JESSA, MEREDITH |
| PLAYING GOD | SARAH, EVA, KENZIE, MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| THE SHYNESS OF TREES | SARAH, KENZIE, MADELYN |
| THE GIRL WHO CRIED PEARLS | SARAH, EVA, MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| ÉIRU | SARAH, EVA |
| I DIED IN IRPIN | KENZIE, MADELYN |
Let me preface for all of us here, the shorts in all 3 categories are very difficult to predict. It’s harder each year to sense a reasoning behind nominations from ‘is the title catchy’ to ‘this person produced this or narrated to, ‘it’s just very timely,’ it’s a mess. Snow Bear follows a lonely polar bear but is written and directed by Aaron Blaise, who did Brother Bear in 2003. I Died In Irpin follows a couple fleeing Kyiv during the war. One that stood out for me is Playing God, which is stop motion and dives into some body horror, it’s interesting.
| DOCUMENTARY SHORT | TEAM MEMBER |
| CASHING OUT | JESSA, MEREDITH |
| ARMED ONLY WITH A CAMERA: THE LIFE AND DEATH OF BRENT RENAUD | JESSA, SARAH, EVA, KENZIE, MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS | JESSA, SARAH, EVA, KENZIE, MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| BAD HOSTAGE | JESSA, MEREDITH |
| THE DEVIL IS BUSY | JESSA, SARAH, MADELYN |
| CLASSROOM 4 | SARAH |
| ALL THE WALLS CAME DOWN | SARAH, EVA, KENZIE, MADELYN |
| WE WERE THE SCENERY | EVA, MEREDITH |
| CHILDREN NO MORE: WERE AND ARE GONE | EVA, KENZIE, MADELYN |
| HEARTBEAT | KENZIE |
One that feels sort of a lock here (if mostly American voters) is All The Empty Rooms, about the rooms left behind of victims of school shootings. As always here, it’s timely but it’s a non-exploitive way of looking at these victims, which could really land in this category. And speaking of timely, Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud focuses on a war photojournalist through the lens of his brother. Brent died covering the war in the Ukraine. Another timely one to watch is The Devil is Busy, following a day at a women’s healthcare clinic, from the doctors to the security guard. A lot of these are bleak watches, which they do tend to go for.
| LIVE ACTION SHORT | TEAM MEMBER |
| THE BOY WITH WHITE SKIN | JESSA |
| ROCK, PAPER, SCISSORS | JESSA, SARAH, KENZIE, EVA, MADELYN |
| ADO | JESSA, MADELYN, KENZIE |
| BEYOND SILENCE | JESSA, SARAH |
| BUTCHER’S STAIN | JESSA |
| THE SINGERS | SARAH, EVA |
| TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA | SARAH, EVA, KENZIE, MEREDITH |
| EXTREMIST | SARAH, EVA, KENZIE, MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| JANE AUSTEN’S PERIOD DRAMA | MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| A FRIEND OF DORTHY | KENZIE, MADELYN, MEREDITH |
| AMARELLA | MEREDITH |
This one feels harder to predict than the other shorts given the wide range of topics and genres. Two People Exchanging Saliva not only has that eye catching title but it’s such a visually stunning film (and narrated by Vicky Krieps). The film is set in a dystopian world where kissing is punishable by death; this premiered at Telluride, totally worth keeping an eye on. Jane Austen’s Period Drama is a satire of Austen’s work about menstruation. This feels a little too… pedestrian for the category but the name alone could get people to vote for it. The Boy with White Skin was a little confusing and I gather that from other people’s reactions as well. Effective but feels a bit subtle for the category. A Friend of Dorothy also feels a bit audience friendly but Miriam Margolyes and Stephen Fry are in it! Rock, Paper, Scissors is another film about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This actually won Best British Short Film at last year’s BAFTAs.
offscreencentral.com 
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