With majority of the fall festivals wrapped up and the New York Film Festival in swing, what better time to touch base and see where the overall Oscar race stands. While some of the bigger festival titles made less noise than anticipated at one festival, a few picked up a different response at the following festival. From a soft Venice debut for Jay Kelly and Frankenstein or a big splash at Venice for The Smashing Machine, the films each played differently as they screened again, whether it be at Telluride or Toronto. This was expected by some for the more ‘pedestrian’ titles, yet it’s still made for an interesting dissection on what to expect from the Oscar race this early on. With things so up in the air, the large splash made by the overwhelming love for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, which skipped all the festivals entirely, has truly made this one of the most thrilling Oscar races this far out in quite some time. 

Heavy Hitters

There was a large discussion with One Battle After Another skipping all the festivals and heading straight into theaters the last week of September. Why skip Venice and TIFF with such a splashy cast? As soon as the social embargo broke, it was clear no festival run was needed. Anderson’s loose adaptation of ‘Vineland’ is a sweeping epic that speaks volumes on its own. No festival red carpet or gala needed to draw attention to the film or generate buzz. With most major trades and outlets giving the film a perfect score in their reviews, Anderson feels majorly ahead of the pack. Following a year where another writer/director, Sean Baker, won 4 Academy Awards, it feels Anderson could be in contention for multiple wins. Some may say it’s all hyperbolic yet One Battle After Another is a film that has so many layers going for it; from the timeliness of the story at its center, a cast made up of both industry veterans and debut film performances, Chase Infiniti a legend in the making, and Anderson having such an overdue conversation with his 11 nominations and no wins. Everything about the film contributes to its overwhelming narrative generating a perfect storm for a frontrunner status that doesn’t feel unearned, even this early on. From the crafts, the epic scope of the story and the filmmaking itself, the conversation around VistaVision, Leonardo DiCaprio finally working with Anderson, and the long-term partnership of many of the department heads Anderson has worked with for his career, including casting director Cassandra Kulukundis, which is extremely noteworthy with this being the first year of the Achievement in Casting Oscar. This early on, One Battle After Another feels it could go the distance in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Casting, and factoring in Sound, Film Editing (man, it FLIES by), and we’ll touch on it later but even, Supporting Actor for Sean Penn. It truly could be one Oscar after another. 

Hamnet dominated the talk of both Telluride and TIFF from Academy Award Winner Chloé Zhao. While described as devastating, haunting, and an emotional journey, the film picked up the Audience Award at TIFF, which is typically awarded to more feel-good, happy films, such as The Life of Chuck and The Fabelmans. The film not only picking this up but having overwhelming response from multiple festivals and an agreement across the board that Jessie Buckley is a frontrunner for Lead Actress, keeps the film as one of the top contenders for Best Picture to me. In a festival season that has felt so uncertain with various films playing so differently at each festival, Hamnet playing so strongly and maintaining that momentum ahead of its actual release feels strong. Paul Mescal and his incredibly impressive resume are no stranger to the Oscars either and his press run for Hamnet and another project, A History of Sound, feels promising for another nomination for him. The adaptation will surely be competing against One Battle After Another in director, Adapted Screenplay, cinematography and original score (Max Richter, it’s time!). It will be interesting to see the conversation surrounding repeating Picture and Director so soon with Zhao and if Anderson is her closest competition, can his overdue narrative give him the edge? Zhao’s vision and passion with Hamnet are being noted consistently and she could outswing Anderson in director if the passion maintains with voters. 

Mixed Reactions

At the Venice Film Festival, Noah Baumbach’s star-powered Jay Kelly was met with a more muted response. Not so much divisive but just more of a whimper than a massive bang that many were expecting from the George Clooney vehicle. However, the film was met with much more praise out of Telluride that same weekend. Could we finally see Adam Sandler nominated at the Oscars? The Sandman is the absolute standout for all that have seen the film, alongside Billy Crudup. Sandler is deeply beloved in the industry by those who respect comedy as an art, and he did come pretty close with the Safdie Brothers’ Uncut Gems to a nomination. After the quiet reactions out of Venice, many removed or took Jay Kelly out of their predictions in many categories, however, I think the latest Baumbach film is still a contender. Not only is the assortment of cast and crew full of Oscar friendly names, but the story is about the industry, which usually is hard for the Academy to ignore. With Netflix behind this, I’m not counting it out. 

Another Netflix title that had a mixed reaction out of Venice but a warmer reception at another festival, but this time TIFF, was Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. Most of the reviews out of Venice were unfavorable with notes of the film being overlong and a strange interpretation of Mary Shelley’s beloved story. The one thing everyone out of Venice agreed upon, however, was Jacob Elordi delivering an astonishing performance as the Creature at the center of the film. When the film flew over to Toronto, it was met with much more positive remarks. An overwhelming turn that led to the film placing in the top three for the Audience Award. While the Audience Award has slipped with its Oscar correlation over the years, it’s still something to keep top of mind, especially considering del Toro’s last film, Nightmare Alley, was able to land a Best Picture nomination despite not having the strongest award season leading up to it. Del Toro is not just an Oscar winner, but a beloved figure in the film industry, consistently speaking up for practical filmmaking and theatrical releases. His singular vision in all of his films is remarkable but anyone who knows the writer/director knows creature features are his true love. Frankenstein will be seen as a realized dream for the iconic director and if the film continues to have improved reactions ahead of its release, all the pieces could fall in place for an Oscar run outside of its deserved but expected crafts and you could see the film land in Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor. 

At Venice, Benny Safdie won the Silver Lion for Best Director for The Smashing Machine, starring Dwayne Johnson and Academy Award Nominee Emily Blunt. The film had mixed reactions out of the festival, most of the negative focusing on the film being a typical sports biopic and Blunt’s character being a sidelined wife trope. The conversation remained the same at TIFF, however, the reaction felt a tad more negative out of Toronto with less noise surrounding Johnson’s transformative performance. Safdie, with his first solo directorial project, not only directed the film, but wrote, edited and produced the film. The Smashing Machine is getting a limited IMAX release as it was shot on 16 mm film but features full frame 65 mm and even VHS work blown up to IMAX size. There should be more of a conversation from A24 about the cinematography from Maceo Bishop and collaboration he and Safdie did with IMAX to pull this off and make it work. While his Silver Lion win holds some massive weight heading into the Oscar race, without a massive push and consistent conversation from A24, The Smashing Machine could get lost in the shuffle as its misinterpreted as a sports biopic you’ve seen before versus an in-depth character study and story of trying and losing.

The Testament of Ann Lee was a very hot title headed into the festival season and the reaction has been pretty mixed on the title. Mona Fastvold, co-writer of The Brutalist, returns to the director’s chair for this musical starring Amanda Seyfried. While many feel emotionally overwhelmed and passionate for the film, some felt out of both Venice and TIFF, the film was a bit self-serious and peaked early, never getting back to the strength of its opening. The film is still without distribution so there’s no release date or strategy to know how the campaign will be handled or entrusted to. Without any of this information, it’s hard to predict where it’s contending to land, however, if the film does get a good studio behind it, the film could still land in Lead Actress, sound, cinematography and maybe a screenplay nod. 

What’s the Tea

Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons reuniting on another project was always going to lead whatever film into Oscar talk before we even saw it. Bugonia was met with mostly praise out of the Venice Film Festival. It’s an interesting conversation for Stone as many say it’s one of her best performances to date, yet could she really be in contention to win another Oscar (for another Lanthimos film) so soon? And her thirdLead Actress win? The discussion around Plemons was a bit softer than anticipated as many note he’s great as he always is but no one ran out saying he was in contention for a win, which given his competition in Lead Actor, you’d need the passion to start early to be in the hunt. Lanthimos is still in my ten for director but not entirely high up. Bugonia could have a massive uptick in praise and hype as the season goes on, this is a group of artists beloved by the Academy and audiences alike. It’s too early to call it out for anything but it does feel a bit more of a muted conversation than Poor Things was at this time. 

A House of Dynamite had an explosive initial reaction from its premiere in Venice. The star-studded project is a return to form for Oscar winner Kathryn Bigelow. While following its premiere, the film felt full of momentum in various categories, the conversation sort of died down as if the passion soured quickly. While the film could be a massive vehicle to finally get Rebecca Ferguson in an Oscar lineup, A House of Dynamite momentum would need to swing back soon. The Bigelow project could see Oscar winner Volker Bertelmann back in the race for Original Score and most likely land Sound, Editing, and maybe Visual Effects if the film is back in the hunt as the season goes on. 

After the Hunt was once a big hopeful contender for Ayo Edebiri, Julia Roberts and Andrew Garfield, however, the Venice premiere was quite divisive, and all award chances seemingly ended there. Ballad of a Small Player was also met with divisive reactions and the Edward Berger follow up to Conclave feels it may just be a commercial player for Netflix. Hedda, from Nia DiCosta, was met with mostly praise from female critics, which is important to note with the context of the story. Tessa Thompson has had a great career being in everything from Marvel projects to beautiful films, such as Passing. Thompson could be one to watch for a Lead Actress nomination and maybe the film in Adapted Screenplay and some craft categories. A lot of online pundits were pushing for Rental Family to be an awards player, but I think that was just hopeful chatter as the premiere was pretty muted. 

Wait and See

Park Chan-Wook has time and time again been in the award season conversation with no pay off. No Other Choice was met with overwhelming praise at Venice and TIFF, landing the International Audience Award at TIFF. Despite not being awarded by the Jury at Venice, the critical response is undeniable. If Neon can keep the momentum going, No Other Choice could easily land not only in International Feature but Picture, Director, and Screenplay categories. One of our greatest working directors deserves the push and to maintain his place in the conversation. Decision to Leave came close to an International Feature nomination and was deserving of more but this feels bigger and with someone like Neon on the campaign, if done well, this could be a large player. 

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, the dad film of the year, was met with mostly praise out of Telluride. Jeremy Allen White, while a TV Academy name, is still a well-known name in a biopic playing one of the most beloved musicians. Scott Cooper is definitely someone to take seriously, and the supporting cast could come along for the ride, Jeremy Strong, a former nominee, and fresh off his Emmy win, Stephen Graham is absolutely one to watch. I’ve said all year if this film is good, the box office will be decent and White will be one to consider for a Lead Actor win… I still feel that way as of publishing!

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery was a question mark for me as Glass Onion was a massive step down in quality compared to the first film, but it was still quite the hit and got that Adapted Screenplay nomination. The third installment from Rian Johnson has an incredible cast, including Glenn Close, a darker, grittier premise, and looks more in-line with the original film. The response out of TIFF confirmed it was more of a return to form but a bit darker, which is thrilling to hear. I definitely think it’s a contender for a nomination in Screenplay and Casting. Close is a name that’s hard to not consider for a nomination but the standout to all who saw the film was Josh O’Connor. Close could pull off a nomination but I’m not sensing a win as of now.

The Netflix distributed Train Dreams continues to be the talk of the town every single time it’s screened. This could be the Netflix sleeper hit of the year for their awards run, similar to All Quiet on the Western Front, where it was not the anticipated title from Netflix’s wide slate, yet the passion drove the film from a small contender to a massive player. Keeping an eye on this one in everything from Picture, Director, Lead Actor and Screenplay, perhaps a few crafts as well. 

Films previously screened at Cannes, such as Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent all maintain their place in the conversation of the season (and all with Neon behind them). Sentimental Value still feels like the frontrunner for Supporting Actor for Stellan Skarsgård. While the previously mentioned Penn for One Battle After Another is an absolute standout in one of the best performances not just of his career but of the year in any category, Penn already has two Oscars and Skarsgård, who does not have an Oscar, is not only being lauded as the heart of his film but is a beloved actor. Sentimental Value is a top contender in Picture, perhaps winning Original Screenplay, and a player across the board, this is going to help get Skarsgård over the finish line if Neon keeps the momentum up.

Released Gems

Keeping an eye on films that have already released the biggest contender is definitely Sinners. While one of the biggest hits of the year, Ryan Coogler’s romantic, epic film has a bit of a climb for me to be fully confident it’s landing in all of its deserved above-the-line categories. While we saw some strides with the horror bias at the Oscars with the overperformance of The Substance and Nosferatu just this last season, both films had a different path than Sinners. While Sinners is from an Oscar nominee with Coogler, the film did come out pretty early in the year, not unsimilar to Get Out, which was able to hold momentum for the Oscars. The Substance won at the Cannes Film Festival for Screenplay and then had a Fall release. Nosferatu skipped festival season but had a Christmas release date to be top of mind during voting. However, both of those films did not have the Oscar pedigree with the crew that Sinners has, and the film is definitely a big contender for wins in the craft categories. Additionally, for performances, Delroy Lindo should have been a lock for Da 5 Bloods, and he missed out. Sinners not only has a horror bias working against it, but the film came out in the early half of the year and the studio is 100% going to be split with its campaign on this and One Battle. Lindo is absolutely deserving; however, it feels shaky to say he’s a lock. The passion will definitely keep him top of conversation but there’s a lot to get him in that final five. Warner Brothers has started award screenings for Sinners so the conversation is just getting started again and hopefully Coogler’s film can go the distance for some much-deserved Oscar love across the board.

Celine Song’s Materialists feels like a non-starter for me at the Oscars despite being quite the box office hit worldwide. Perhaps the film pops up at the Golden Globes, but the Oscar talk feels it never went anywhere. Eva Victor’s Sorry, Baby was originally being compared to Song’s Past Lives release/awards campaign, yet it feels a bit quieter than Past Lives was being discussed at this stage. Victor could pop up at the Globes in Comedy/Musical and there is still some hope for an Original Screenplay nomination. In a just world, the film would be a massive above-the-line player, but the release date and A24’s campaign on this one have held it back from being a bigger Oscar player. Weapons is the talk of the town and a hopeful for Supporting Actress and perhaps a few other categories. While I think it would be amazing, I don’t see this happening as of now. I do think one critics group, perhaps LA or NY, will go for Amy Madigan in Supporting. 

Still to Come

In addition, we have many films not yet seen by anyone from Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good, Is This Thing On?, Ella McCay, and Anemone. Avatar could likely pick up its same haul as the previous installment or maybe miss Picture this go around? Wicked: For Good is interesting as I’m not sure in the expanded picture era of a sequel being in the running the very next calendar year. Is the most comparable Wakanda Forever? If so, it’ll be interesting if the film performs better than the first installment, given we have Original Songs on deck this time and the back half of the story allows for more of an emotional arc. 

Marty Supreme is being hailed by most as a huge contender not just for Timothée Chalamet but Gwenyth Paltrow, Josh Safdie, and in Picture alongside crafts. Sight unseen, it’s hard for me to fully believe a massive contending path outside of Academy Award Nominee Chalamet, who has come close twice now to a win and is clearly on his path of greatness. Is This Thing On? is Bradley Cooper’s directorial follow-up to Maestro starring Will Arnett and Laura Dern following a man dealing with his emotional state throughout his impending divorce. Personally, I think we could all be underestimating this one. We obviously need ot see the film, but the project wrapped up earlier this year and Searchlight is pushing out in December, similar path to last year’s A Complete Unknown. Cooper is a 12-time Oscar nominee, and all of his directorial projects have landed nominations. While I’m a Mini Cooper through and through, the premise, talent and stats for everyone involve lead me to want to keep my eye on it regardless of being a fan of the director. Anemone sees the return of three-time Lead Actor winner Daniel Day-Lewis, directed by his son. Will the legend be back in the running following his retirement stint? 

There are titles I didn’t even touch on from Kiss of the Spider Woman to Die, My Love to F1: The Movie, as there are just so many to consider this year. While there’s been talk of it being a weak year, I think it’s quite an impressive year with such a varied selection of genres with a mix of legends and fresh faces in all the races. It’s only September, we still have all of NYFF, BFI London Film Festival and AFI to keep the conversation changing before the guild, critics and then full-on award season is in motion. We’ll update our predictions weekly here as paths change, campaigns kick off, and films premiere.